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The lady is not for turning,” said former British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher in her famous speech at the Conservative Party conference back in 1980. No! In the circumstances, are the constituents of what the RBI ambitiously, if rather naively, terms its ‘first phase of exit’ — a return to 25% statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and rollback of special refinance facilities to banks — good enough? Worse, the final verdict on whether a moment was opportune or not is always known only in hindsight, never before. But in the tradition of central banks, it is wary of rocking the boat. The problem is there is never a ‘right’ moment to tighten the monetary belt; certainly not from the perspective of the lay public. Moreover, the pressure on the bank to continue its easy stance has been immense. In an economy where even a cut in policy rates takes months to get translated into action on the ground and has, at best, a partial impact because of weaknesses in the transmission mechanism (in the period between October 2008 and October 2009, the RBI cut its repo rate by 4.25 percentage points, yet bank lending rates came down by less than three percentage points) and tentative, half-hearted signals cut no ice. The mighty Fed under Alan Greenspan and then Ben Bernanke did not have the courage to change course when the going was good, despite clear evidence of asset bubbles, so why point a finger at the RBI? He knows he has to change course. Sure there are some feeble moves to tighten monetary policy (more about that later) and some pious talk about the need to exit its excessively accommodative stance. To be fair to the governor, you can’t fault him entirely on that. But by keeping all policy rates unchanged, RBI governor D Subbarao has signalled, that like Saint Augustine’s, ‘Lord, give me chastity and continence, but not yet,’ he is not yet ready for restraint. The RBI knows as much. Virtually everyone agrees the world and the Indian economy cannot live forever on steroids. The governor knows that as well. The net result is a policy that is strangely at odds with his own earlier remarks about how the RBI might need to exit its expansionary stance faster than other central banks because of rising inflationary pressures as well as ground realities. They are too tentative and make no difference in a scenario where banks’ holding of SLR securities is well in excess of 25% and, as per the RBI’s own admission, the “banking system has been awash with liquidity since November 2008”. He also knows the longer he delays, the more he risks aggravating inflationary pressures. Substitute ‘gentleman’ for ‘lady’ and there, in a nutshell, you have the essence of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) second quarter review of the bank’s monetary policy for 2009-10. Both the finance minister and the prime minister have made no secret about not wanting

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